Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics

Charly Favier (1, 2) , Delphine Schmit (1) , Christine D.M. Müller-Graf (3) , Bernard Cazelles (4, 5) , Nicolas Dégallier (2) , Bernard Mondet (6) , Marc A. Dubois (1)

1 SPEC - UMR3680 - Service de physique de l'état condensé
2 LOCEAN - Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques
3 PE - Parasitologie évolutive
4 FESE - Fonctionnement et évolution des systèmes écologiques
5 GEODES - Modélisation mathématique et informatique de systèmes complexes naturels, biologiques ou sociaux
6 CTEM - Conditions et territoires d'émergence des maladies : dynamiques spatio-temporelles de l'émergence, évolution, diffusion/réduction des maladies, résistance et prémunition des hôtes

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the EI epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.

Mots clés: [dengue]; [urban epidemics]; [heterogeneous models]; [Easter Island]; [Brazil]

Domaines: Evolution [q-bio.PE]; Parasitologie

Charly Favier, Delphine Schmit, Christine D.M. Müller-Graf, Bernard Cazelles, Nicolas Dégallier, et al.. Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Containing papers of a Biological character. Royal Society (Great Britain), 2005, 272, pp.1171. ⟨10.1098/rspb.2004.3020⟩. ⟨hal-00086944⟩