Estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake from four three-dimensional global ocean models
Résumé
We have compared simulations of anthropogenic CO$_2$ in the four threedimensional ocean models that participated in the first phase of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP), as a means to identify their major differences.
Simulated global uptake agrees to within $\pm$19%, giving a range of 1.85$\pm$0.35 PgC yr$^{-1}$ for the 1980-1989 average. Regionally, the Southern Ocean dominates the present-day air-sea flux of anthropogenic CO$_2$ in all models, with one third to one half of the global uptake occurring south of 30°S. The highest simulated total uptake in the Southern Ocean was 70% larger than the lowest. Comparison with recent data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO$_2$ suggesthat most of the models substantially overestimate storage in the Southern Ocean; elsewhere they generally underestimate storage by less than 20%. Globally, the OCMIP models appear to bracket the real ocean's present uptake, based on comparison of regional data-basedstimates of anthropogenic CO$_2$ and bomb $^{14}$C. Column inventories of bomb $^{14}$C have become more similar to those for anthropogenic CO$_2$ with the time that has elapsed between the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (1970s) and Word Ocean Circulation Experiment (1990s) global sampling campaigns. Our ability to evaluate simulated anthropogenic CO$_2$ would improve if systematic errors associated with the data-based estimates could be provided regionally.
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