Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER)

T. N. Palmer (1) , A. Alessandri (2) , U. Andersen (3) , P. Cantelaube (4) , M. K. Davey (5) , Pascale Delécluse (6) , Michel Déqué (7) , E. Diez , Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes (1) , H. Feddersen (3) , R. Graham (5) , S. Gualdi (2) , Jean-François Guérémy (7) , R. Hagedorn (1) , M. Hoshen , Noel S. Keenlyside , Mojib Latif , Alban Lazar (6) , Éric Maisonnave (8) , V. Marletto , A. P. Morse , B. Orfila , P. Rogel (8) , J.-M. Terres (4) , M. C. Thomson

1 ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2 Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia
3 Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
4 Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit
5 Met Office Climate Research Division
6 LODYC - Laboratoire d'océanographie dynamique et de climatologie
7 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
8 CERFACS - Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique

easonal timescale climate predictions are now made routinely at a number of operational meteorological centers around the world, using comprehensive coupled models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface (e.g., Stockdale et al. 1998; Mason et al. 1999; Kanamitsu et al. 2002; Alves et al. 2002). This development can be traced back to a revolution in our understanding of the coupled oceanatmosphere system in the second half of the twentieth century (Neelin et al. 1998), to the development and deployment of specialized buoys to observe and measure the evolution of near-surface waters in the

Domaines: Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]; Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]; Milieux et Changements globaux

T. N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, U. Andersen, P. Cantelaube, M. K. Davey, et al.. Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2004, 85, pp.853-872. ⟨10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853⟩. ⟨hal-00154236⟩