Where and when will we observe cloud changes due to climate warming?

Hélène Chepfer (1) , Vincent Noel (1) , Dave Winker (2) , Marjolaine Chiriaco (3)

1 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
2 LaRC - NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton]
3 SPACE - LATMOS

Climate models predict the geographic distribution of clouds will change in response to anthropogenic warming, though uncertainties in the existing satellite record are larger than the magnitude of the predicted effects. Here we argue that cloud vertical distribution, observable by active spaceborne sensors, is a more robust signature of climate change. Comparison of AMIP present-day and +4 K runs from CMIP5 shows that cloud radiative effect and total cloud cover do not represent robust signatures of climate change, as predicted changes fall within the range of variability in the current observational record. However, the predicted forced changes in cloud vertical distribution (directly measurable by spaceborne active sensors) are much larger than the currently observed variability, and are expected to first appear at a statistically significant level in the upper troposphere, at all latitudes.

Mots clés: Climate; Space borne lidar; Clouds; Remote sensing

Domaines: Climatologie

Hélène Chepfer, Vincent Noel, Dave Winker, Marjolaine Chiriaco. Where and when will we observe cloud changes due to climate warming?. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, 41 (23), pp.8387-8395. ⟨10.1002/2014GL061792⟩. ⟨hal-01082640⟩