A solar cycle 25 prediction based on 4D-var data assimilation approach

Allan Sacha Brun (1) , Ching Pui Hung (1, 2) , Alexandre Fournier (2) , Laurène Jouve (3) , Olivier Talagrand (4) , Antoine Strugarek (1) , Soumitra Hazra (1)

1 AIM (UMR_7158 / UMR_E_9005 / UM_112) - Astrophysique Interprétation Modélisation
2 IPGP (UMR_7154) - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
3 IRAP - Institut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie
4 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)

Based on our modern 4D-var data assimilation pipeline Solar Predict we present in this short proceeding paper our prediction for the next solar cycle 25. As requested by the Solar Cycle 25 panel call issued on January 2019 by NOAA/SWPC and NASA, we predict the timing of next minimum and maximum as well as their amplitude. Our results are the following: the minimum should have occured within the first semester of year 2019. The maximum should occur in year 2024.4 ± 6 months, with a value of the sunspot number equal to 92±10. This is in agreement with the NOAA/NASA consensus published in April 2019. Note that our prediction errors are based on 1-σ measure and do not consider all the systematics, so they are likely underestimated. We will update our prediction and error analysis regularly as more data becomes available and we improve our prediction pipeline.

Mots clés: Sun; dynamo; 11-yr cycle; solar cycle prediction; data analysis; data assimilation

Domaines: Planète et Univers [physics]

Allan Sacha Brun, Ching Pui Hung, Alexandre Fournier, Laurène Jouve, Olivier Talagrand, et al.. A solar cycle 25 prediction based on 4D-var data assimilation approach. Solar and Stellar Magnetic Fields: Origins and Manifestations, 2020, à renseigner, Unknown Region. pp.138-146, ⟨10.1017/S1743921320003993⟩. ⟨insu-03584813⟩